Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently announced the completion of construction on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with an official inauguration set for September.
Ahmed extended an invitation to both Egypt and Sudan to attend the ceremony, describing the dam as a “symbol of blessing and mutual benefit—not a source of conflict or threat.”
However, officials from both Egypt and Sudan have cast doubt on this optimistic view. They argue that Ethiopia’s approach to building the dam and dealing with downstream countries has not reflected the spirit of cooperation.
Egypt’s Minister of Irrigation, Hani Sewilam, went so far as to call the announcement of the dam's completion and its operation this September an "illegal act."
What Happened?
Ethiopia launched the GERD project in 2011. Negotiations with Egypt over how to construct and operate the dam in a way that wouldn't harm downstream nations led to a Declaration of Principles in 2015. However, all subsequent talks—including regional and international mediation—failed to produce a comprehensive agreement that satisfied all sides.
During a parliamentary session, Abiy Ahmed stated that the dam has “not affected water flows to the High Dam in Egypt” and claimed that “not a single drop” of Egypt’s water share has been lost due to GERD.
He reaffirmed Ethiopia’s readiness to continue dialogue with Egypt and Sudan to achieve “mutual interests and shared development.”
Ahmed emphasized that “Ethiopia is committed to ensuring that our growth does not come at the expense of our Egyptian and Sudanese brothers and sisters. We believe in joint progress, shared energy, and shared water.”
Despite these assurances, recent figures suggest otherwise.
According to Dr. Abbas Sharaky, a professor of water resources at Cairo University, the annual average flow of the Blue Nile over 84 years (1911–1995) was about 50 billion cubic meters—roughly 60% of the Nile’s flow at Aswan. While some recent years have seen floods as high as 61 billion cubic meters, these levels remain within historical fluctuations.
He added that the Aswan High Dam helped shield Egypt from the adverse effects of water storage during GERD's filling process.
“Illegal and in Violation of International Law”
Minister Hani Sewilam reiterated Egypt’s outright rejection of any development in Ethiopia that undermines the rights of downstream countries.
He accused Ethiopia of trying to impose a fait accompli, using stalling tactics instead of engaging in genuine negotiations.
Sewilam labeled the dam's completion a “clear violation of international law,” especially the principles related to equitable and reasonable use of shared waterways and the obligation not to cause significant harm.
He also criticized Ethiopia for promoting the dam’s completion as a PR move to appear cooperative on the international stage, without addressing the core concerns of Egypt and Sudan.
Concerns About Egypt’s Water Share
Studies and statements over the past few years have warned of the potential loss of a substantial portion of Egypt’s Nile water due to GERD’s reservoir.
Some speculated that Egypt might lose up to one-third of its share because of Ethiopia’s large-scale water storage.
However, Sharaky rejected such claims, noting that there is no scientific evidence that the Blue Nile’s annual flow reached 75 billion cubic meters during the dam filling, as some suggested.
He recalled early fears that GERD would cause 2 million acres in Egypt to go out of cultivation, reduce groundwater levels, increase soil salinity, trigger seawater intrusion in the Delta, and drive 10 million farmers into unemployment and illegal migration—all of which have not materialized.
Egypt took precautionary measures to mitigate GERD’s potential impact, which, coupled with favorable rainfall and other on-ground factors, helped soften the blow.
Has Egypt Been Affected by GERD’s Filling?
There were genuine concerns about a potential reduction in Egypt’s Nile share due to GERD, but abundant rainfall, Sudan's reduced water consumption, and Egypt’s agricultural water-saving strategies helped prevent major negative impacts.
Dr. Nader Nour El-Din, a professor of water and soil at Cairo University, told the BBC that floods over the past five years were unusually strong, raising the Blue Nile’s flow to 75 billion cubic meters instead of the usual 49. Ethiopia filled the dam using this surplus water, so Egypt’s share remained intact.
He emphasized that this was not due to Ethiopia’s planning or goodwill but rather fortunate timing. Ethiopia annually raised the middle dam wall between April and mid-June—before the flood season started—so it had no knowledge of the incoming water levels.
Sharaky noted that Egypt implemented several major water-saving measures, including:
Reusing about 25 billion cubic meters of agricultural drainage water
Using 8 billion cubic meters of groundwater from the Nile Valley and Delta
Reutilizing 17 billion cubic meters from surface drainage canals
Establishing advanced water treatment plants
He stressed that while GERD wasn’t the sole reason for these initiatives, it was a key driver behind their accelerated implementation, adding that Egypt has spent over 500 billion Egyptian pounds on water infrastructure to shield citizens from GERD’s effects.
Changes in Egypt’s Agricultural Map
In response to water concerns, Egypt restructured its agricultural policies, especially regarding water-intensive crops like rice, bananas, and sugarcane.
Nour El-Din noted that Egypt began reducing rice cultivation and banned its export in 2010, a year before GERD’s construction started. So, the reduction wasn’t solely due to GERD but reflected an already existing water deficit.
Sharaky added that Egypt replaced some sugarcane cultivation with sugar beet, banned banana farming in certain areas, and launched the 100,000-acre greenhouse project to further limit water usage.
Sudan’s Position
Sudan has not officially responded to Abiy Ahmed’s invitation to the dam’s inauguration. This may be due to the country’s internal turmoil and competing priorities during its ongoing conflict.
Nour El-Din explained that Sudan’s current crisis has affected its ability to use or store its 18.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water, with some of it unintentionally flowing to Egypt.
He also pointed out that canal lining—an EU-backed initiative recommended by Western experts—was implemented under former irrigation minister Mohamed Abdel Aty, saving around 5 billion cubic meters annually. Again, this measure wasn’t solely a reaction to GERD but a necessary water efficiency effort.
Water Scarcity
Egypt is one of the world’s most water-stressed nations, receiving the lowest annual rainfall globally and relying on the Nile for 98% of its water supply.
Last year, six countries ratified the Entebbe Agreement, including South Sudan, effectively reviving it after 14 years of dormancy.
The agreement introduces a new legal framework for resolving disputes and redistributing Nile waters. It allows upstream countries to launch water projects without securing the approval of downstream states.
Egypt and Sudan have not signed the agreement and do not recognize it, as it disregards their claimed historical rights based on colonial-era treaties.
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